统计研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 3-15.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.04.001

• •    下一篇

中国雾霾污染的空间关联研究

刘华军 杜广杰   

  • 出版日期:2018-04-25 发布日期:2018-04-25

Research on Spatial Correlation of Haze Pollution in China

Liu Huajun&Du Guangjie   

  • Online:2018-04-25 Published:2018-04-25

摘要: 本文利用非线性Granger因果检验识别了中国279个城市间雾霾污染的空间依赖关系,结合多样化的网络分析方法与滚动窗口技术揭示出雾霾污染空间关联的整体特征与微观模式,进而基于指数随机图模型考察了雾霾污染空间关联的影响因素及作用机制。研究发现:样本城市间普遍存在雾霾污染依赖关系并且这种空间关联的紧密程度逐渐上升,近年来中国大范围雾霾污染的频繁爆发与雾霾污染区域性特征的日趋强化密切相关。除了自然因素之外,人类经济社会活动在雾霾污染空间关联的形成中发挥了重要作用。本文的研究结论对雾霾污染及其区域传输的还原论、自然决定论等观点进行了有力的反驳,有助于确立人在雾霾治理中的主观能动性。

关键词: 雾霾污染, 空间关联, 网络分析, 模体, 指数随机图模型

Abstract: Based on the nonparametric approach of Granger causality, the paper identifies the spatial dependence relationship of haze pollution among 279 cities in China. It uses the diversified network analysis method and rolling window technology to reveal the global characteristic and microstructure of haze pollution spatial correlation. Finally, it utilizes exponential random graph mode to investigate the determining factors in the formation of the spatial correlation. It finds that there exists spatial dependence relationship of haze pollution among sample cities. In recent years, the serious haze pollution in China may be due to the increasingly strengthened regional characteristics of haze pollution. The result shows that human-related factors also play important roles in the formation of spatial correlation of haze pollution. The paper refutes the misperceptions about haze pollution and its regional transport. The conclusions of the paper can help to establish people's subjective initiative in haze controlling.

Key words: Haze Pollution, Spatial Correlation, Network Analysis, Motif, ERGM