关键词: 地方政府债务, 显性债务, 或有债务, 融资平台, 信用风险

Abstract: In the case of local government compensation uncertainly triggered by third-parties, the paper models the structural credit risks of local government debts, and gives the analytic solutions and estimation methods for the default probabilities of explicit debt and implicit debt. Based on the explicit debt data reported by local governments and the relevant audit announcements of the National Audit Office et al., the paper conducts structural decomposition and calculation for the two kinds of debts, empirically estimates their default probabilities and comparatively analyzes their changing trends. The study shows the major risk of local government debts is the uncertain triggering of contingent debt and local governments have structural pressure to fulfill their compensatory obligation at some certain time points or periods. However, the policy design such as Local Governments Bond Replacement Plans which aims at lengthening the debt duration helps to mitigate the credit risk boundary of local government debts and reduce the structural compensatory pressure of local governments. The paper uses specific figures to demonstrate the structural risks of local government debts and their changing trends, as well as the quantitative relationships between debt duration and the compensatory pressure of local governments.

Key words: Local Government Debt, Explicit Debt, Contingent Debt, Financing Platform, Credit Risk