统计研究

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中国资本服务测算及其稳健性研究

姬卿伟   

  • 出版日期:2017-10-15 发布日期:2017-10-25

Capital Services Measure and its Robustness Research in China

Ji Qingwei   

  • Online:2017-10-15 Published:2017-10-25

摘要: 本文运用平均役龄效率、各类资产初始存量和永续盘存法估算生产性存量,在此基础上引入固定质量因子和T?rnqvist指数权重测算中国1985-2014年资本服务。结果表明,平均几何效率测算的各类资本服务流量皆小于平均双曲效率,其中非住宅和住宅建筑以较大的资本服务流量位列9类资本前两位,二者汇总的1990年不变价增速显著高于设备类和无形资本,并在8%-18%之间大幅度波动,总资本服务增速高于建筑类服务增速并呈周期性波动,且两种役龄效率下总资本服务增长趋势接近。最后通过可比口径参数组合间的资本服务相对误差稳健性检验,发现役龄效率对比组合的相对误差最大,同一效率下测算结果较稳健。

关键词: 资本服务, 资本投入, 平均役龄效率, 稳健性

Abstract: The paper uses average age efficiency, each type of assets’ initial stock and PIM to estimate productive stock, and based on that constant quality factor and the T?rnqvist index weight are introduced to measure China’s capital service from 1985 to 2014. The results show that each type of assets’ capital service flow measured by geometric efficiency is less than that of hyperbolic efficiency. The non-residential and residential buildings’ service flow take respectively the first and the second place in 9 types of capital, and the two’s aggregate real service growth rates which are fluctuating between 8%-18% are remarkably higher than those of equipment and intangible capital. The real growth rates of the aggregate capital service are much higher than those of the aggregate buildings and present periodic volatility, and further more the growth trend of the aggregate capital service is similar between the geometric and hyperbolic efficiency. Finally robustness test of the capital service relative errors between parameter combinations under comparable caliber is done. It is found that the errors under average age efficiency are much bigger than other combinations’ and the results are more stable in the same efficiency form.

Key words: Capital Service, Capital Input, Average Age Efficiency, Robustness