• 论文 •

### 人口普查净误差估计中的三系统估计量研究

• 出版日期:2017-06-15 发布日期:2017-06-20

### Research on Triple System Estimator for Census Net Error Estimation

Hu Guihua et al.

• Online:2017-06-15 Published:2017-06-20

Abstract: This paper clearly puts forward the research goal that triple system replaces dual system estimator aimed at the question about the population count is biased estimated by dual system estimator originated from independence failure, which is the mainstream method in the field of population quality assessment. Triple system estimator refers to the population count estimator that is constructed based on three population registration lists from the census, quality assessment survey after the census and administrative record system, which belongs to the same time and the same population. In order to achieve the above goal, in the paper, the research methods of the field investigation, mathematical model, sampling estimation and empirical analysis are adopted, and absorbing international advanced related research result idea. Based on this idea, this paper studies the construction of the triple system estimator in the quality evaluation of the census and the application and so on. Through the theoretical and empirical research, the following conclusions are drawn: triple system estimator can effectively get rid of the independent constraints of the dual system estimator to solve the problem of the biased estimator; in order to apply triple system estimator to the census quality assessment, it is necessary to scientifically and reasonably solve some questions that three population registration systems must be in a unified standard time; each person has the same registration probability in any of three registration systems; estimator of triple system estimator must be constructed with quality assessment survey; although triple system estimator based on Logistic regression model can be better used to achieve the equal probability stratified target there are still many theoretical and practical problems to be solved, there is a considerable research space on this issue. It is suggested that the National Bureau of statistics of China should apply triple system estimator in the quality evaluation of future population census.