统计研究

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政府推动型城市化促进了县域经济发展吗

卢盛峰等   

  • 出版日期:2017-05-15 发布日期:2017-05-16

Urbanization Promoted by Government: A Helping Hand for County Economy

Lu Shengfeng et al.   

  • Online:2017-05-15 Published:2017-05-16

摘要: 文章基于中国“撤县设区”改革的政策实验,使用一种纯数据推动的合成控制评估思路,分析了政府推动型城市化模式对县域经济发展的影响。研究结果表明:(1)中国政府推动型城市化,在大多数地区发挥了中心城市经济发展的辐射和援助作用,但是短期内未能带来人口的实质性城市化;(2)在影响渠道上表现为,这一城市化进程增强了县域财政收支能力,同时强化了辖区政府在公共服务事务上的支出,进而发挥着对县域经济发展的“援助之手”。但是本文的研究也表明,在中国政府推动型高速城市化背景下,我们同样需要警惕假性城市化及延缓县域经济发展的双重隐患,过快或干预过多的城市化模式也可能会损害经济的健康发展。

关键词: 政府推动型城市化, 撤县设区, 县域经济, 合成控制法

Abstract: Based on the Quasi-natural experiment of “Setting Counties to Districts” in China, this paper employs the synthetic control methods for studying the urbanization promoted by government, and analyses the effects on economic development of counties. The result shows that: (1) the urbanization promoted by government does act as the radiating and assistance role in the economic development of central city in most cases, while it fails to enhance substantial urbanization of population in short term; (2) for the causal mechanism, the urbanization process does strengthen total fiscal revenue and expenditure of counties, and increase those expenditure on public services. Under the background of rapid urbanization in China, it need to maintain vigilance for the two potential problems of formal urbanization and grabbing urbanization. Meanwhile, overly-rapid or excessive-interposed urbanization may also be harmful for the healthy development of economy.

Key words: Urbanization Promoted by Government, Setting Counties to Districts, County Economy, Synthetic Control Methods