关键词: 空间溢出效应, 经济波动, 经济增长, 投资结构, 动态空间杜宾模型

Abstract:

Based on Chinese provincial panel data from 1979 to 2012, this paper uses the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model to examine the spatial spillover effect of Chinese provincial economic volatility on economic growth during the transition period. It draws the following conclusions: Economic volatility eliminates this region's investment projects and enterprises with low efficiency, optimizes the investment structure, and thus has a positive direct effect on the economic growth in this region. On this base, economic volatility attracts the high quality resources in neighbouring areas through the siphon effect. In other regions, it has a negative impact on the investment structure and generates a negative spatial spillover effect on the economic growth. Comparing with the short term from the dynamic perspective, these two effects play greater roles in the long run. It is of great significance to explain the relationship between economic volatility and economic growth in China and to formulate the relevant policies for the coordinated development of regional economy.

Key words: Spatial Spillover Effect, Economic Volatility, Economic Growth, Investment Structure , Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model