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工业化与城市化对中国城市空气质量影响路径差异的研究

李静萍 周景博   

  • 出版日期:2017-04-15 发布日期:2017-04-14

A Study on the Impact Paths of Industrialization and Urbanization on Urban Air Quality in China

Li Jingping & Zhou Jingbo   

  • Online:2017-04-15 Published:2017-04-14

摘要: 本文采用结构方程模型,以2014年全国113个环境保护重点城市为样本,就工业化和城市化进程对空气质量的影响进行了研究。研究结果表明:工业化和城市化对中国城市空气质量的影响路径和影响模式均有显著差异。工业化对空气质量具有直接影响,影响模式为正向线性;城市化对空气质量具有间接影响,其中,人口比重对空气质量的影响为负向线性,人口密度的影响表现为“倒U型”,人口密度影响拐点的置信区间为(363,1232)人/平方千米,2014年,中国有64个城市在此区间内,需要决策者重点关注。本文的创新在于首次将SEM引入空气质量影响因素研究领域,在实证分析中揭示出工业化和城市化对城市空气质量影响的不同路径与模式;并提出,城市化率的提高和第二产业比重的降低均有助于空气质量的改善,从改善空气质量的角度,应将集中型城市化作为中国城市化的基本路径。

关键词: 空气质量, 工业化, 城市化, 结构方程模型, 城市

Abstract: Based on the structural equation modeling (SEM), this paper analyzes the impact path of industrialization and urbanization on urban air quality using data of 113 key environmental protection cities in China in 2014. The results show that there are significant differences between the impact paths and modes of urbanization and urbanization on urban air quality. Industrialization has a direct, positive and linear impact on air quality; while urbanization has an indirect impact. Urban population proportion in municipal district has a negative influence on air quality, while the influence of population density is "inverted U" with the confidence interval of turning point (363, 1232) person / sq. km, where 64 sample cities lie in. The innovation of this paper is to introduce SEM into the research field of air quality influencing factor for the first time. In the empirical analysis, the different path and mode of industrialization and urbanization impact on urban air quality are revealed. The paper suggests that increase of urban population proportion and decrease of secondary industry share will help improve the air quality. From the perspective of improving air quality, centralized urbanization path should be preferred in China.

Key words: Air Quality, Industrialization, Urbanization, Structural Equation Modeling, Urban