统计研究

• 论文 • 上一篇    

STAR模型中的递归退势单位根检验研究

欧阳敏华 章贵军   

  • 出版日期:2016-12-15 发布日期:2016-12-23

Unit Root Tests using Recursive De-trending Procedure in STAR Models

Ouyang Minhua & Zhang Guijun   

  • Online:2016-12-15 Published:2016-12-23

摘要: 在STAR模型框架下,考虑时间序列具有线性确定性趋势成分,本文建立了一个递归退势单位根检验统计量,推导了其渐近分布;并在考虑初始条件情形下,对递归退势、OLS和GLS退势单位根检验统计量的有限样本性质进行了细致的比较研究。若忽略初始条件的影响,GLS退势和递归退势单位根检验统计量的检验势都显著高于OLS退势。随着初始条件的增大,GLS退势单位根检验统计量的检验势下降得比较厉害,递归退势单位根检验统计量的检验势较为稳定,且在样本量较大情形下更具优势。

关键词: STAR模型, 递归退势, 单位根检验, 有限样本性质

Abstract: This paper focuses on the unit root tests using recursive de-trending procedure against alternative hypothesis where the time series data under investigation follow globally stationary ESTAR processes with alinear deterministic trend. It proposes a unit root test using recursive de-trending method, and derives its asymptotic distribution. The results of comparative study of small sample properties for unit root tests using OLS、GLS and recursive de-trending procedure show that the power of GLS and recursive de-trended unit root tests are better than OLS if the initial condition is negligible. If the initial deviation is sizable, the power of GLS de-trended unit root test declines dramatically, but the recursive de-trended unit root test maintains good power properties, especially for relatively large sample.

Key words: STAR, recursive de-trending, unit root test, finite sample performance