统计研究

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国民储蓄率的决定机制:基于幸福经济学的考察

何强 董志勇   

  • 出版日期:2016-12-15 发布日期:2016-12-23

Determination of National Savings Rate: A View from the Economics of Happiness

He Qiang & Dong Zhiyong   

  • Online:2016-12-15 Published:2016-12-23

摘要: 本文基于幸福经济学分析框架,在一种持续增长的经济中考察了国民储蓄率的决定机制,尤其是中国经济高增长背景下的国民储蓄率高企之谜。研究发现,中国经济长期高增长不足以解释其国民储蓄率偏高的特征事实,深层次的原因可能还在于居民在消费时受攀比效应、习惯形成等因素的影响较深,使得增大同期储蓄率更有利于提升整个生命周期的幸福水平。进一步对中国经济新常态期间的预测表明,国民储蓄率将随着经济增长率下降而走低,需谨防由此带来的投资动力不足等相关问题。

关键词: 经济增长, 国民储蓄率, 幸福经济学, 攀比效应, 习惯形成

Abstract: Based on the Economics of Happiness, this paper discusses the determination of national savings rate in an economy with persistent economic growth, especially the high national savings rate puzzle along with high economic growth rate in China. The results show that the high national savings rate can’t be fully explained by long-term economic growth in China. The deep-seated reasons may also lie in the fact that individual consumption is deeply affected by the reference effect about Catching up with the Joneses and habit formation. It forces individuals to increase current savings rate to enhance the level of happiness throughout the life cycle. Further simulation of the new normal period in China's economy shows that the national savings rate would fall as the economic growth rate goes down, so insufficiency of investment capital and other related issues should be paid enough attention to.

Key words: Economic Growth, National Savings Rate, Economics of Happiness, Catching up with the Joneses, Habit Formation