关键词: Bayesian层次模型, 老龄化, 时空统计分析

Abstract:

Based on provincial series statistical population data from 1995-2014, this paper investigates the spatio-temporal variation of Chinese aging during last 20 years, first employing Bayesian hierarchy space-time model. There are 5 new findings. The spatial structure of high aging rate has formed as X-shaped, and eastern region plays a main role and western region plays a subsidiary role. Six provinces, Chongqing, Sichuan, Liaoning, Anhui, Hubei, and Hunan, are not only the old aging hot spots, but also increase faster than the national average. Especially, Chongqing and Sichuan’s increasing annual augmenters of aging rate are 0.39 and 0.34 percent point respectively. The middle-eastern regions’ aging degree is lower than the national level, but the increasing rate is faster. 6 high aging provinces, e.g. Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, whose increasing rate is to be stable or lower than nation’s, experiencing a slower increasing process. According to our prediction, Chinese aging rate will be 13.19% (11.10%-20.94%) if the universal two-child policy has been implemented.

Key words: Bayesian Hierarchy Model, Aging, Space-time Satistical Analysis