关键词: 融资约束, 出口持续时间, 生存分析, Cox比例风险模型, Weibull风险模型

Abstract: Financial market reform process has lagged behind, making the problem of financing become common features of most Chinese enterprises, and profoundly affect the stability and sustainable growth of firms’ exports. Based on 1998--2007 Chinese industrial enterprises data and survival analysis techniques of Cox model and Weibull model, we describe the distribution of Chinese enterprises exporting duration from the microscopic perspective ,and utilize a variety of robustness methods to empirically test the impact of financing constraints on exports’ duration of different enterprise. It shows that risk function of Chinese export duration have significant negative time-dependent features, and the intensification of financing constraints is not beneficial for extending the duration of export business. Specifically, its inhibition impact on State-owned enterprises’ exported duration is the most, and followed by foreign-funded enterprises and non-state-funded enterprises. It also shows that the negative impact on enterprises located in areas which has the higher level of financial market and on large and medium scale firms is less than that on enterprises in the areas of lower level of financial market and small scale enterprises. Besides, utilizing two indicators of financial constraints, the first duration period sample and the only sustained period has the consistent results.

Key words: Financial Constraints, Export Duration, Survival Analysis, Cox Proportion Risk Model, Weibull Risk Model