关键词: 经常项目波动, 资本配置摩擦, RBC模型, 贝叶斯估计

Abstract:

This paper studies Chinese current account dynamics in a real business cycle model extended with domestic capital market and international Financial Frictions. It estimates the model using Bayesian method. The results show that Chinese domestic capital market friction and international Financial Frictions are the important transmission mechanisms of Chinese current account dynamics, which will help to accurately fit the Volatility, CO movement, and persistence. Capital allocation efficiency in China and international capital flows degree are its ability to access international capital market are between the level of developed markets and that of other emerging markets. These capital market frictions amplify and propagate the interest rate risk premium shock and preference shock to drive Chinese current account dynamics.

Key words: Current Account Dynamics, Capital Market Frictions, RBC Model, Bayesian Estimation