关键词: 工业制成品出口, 国内需求, 产能约束, 非线性STR模型

Abstract:

Based on the sample data from the first quarter of 2000 to the third quarter of 2014, this paper examines the effect of domestic demand fluctuation on the export of industrial manufactured goods under production capacity constraints in China with nonlinear smoothing transition model. The study finds that the domestic demand fluctuation has a nonlinear effect on the export of industrial manufactures goods, that is, the effect of domestic demand fluctuation on the export of industrial manufactured goods is asymmetric. When China’s economic growth slows and the industrial production capacity utilization level is lower than the threshold value, the domestic demand fluctuation has a negative impact on the export of manufactured goods and these two variables show alternative relations. And when the economic situation is good and the industrial production capacity utilization level is higher than the threshold value, the domestic demand fluctuation has a positive impact on the export of manufactured goods and these two variables show complementary relations. When the industrial production capacity utilization level is near threshold value, the effect of domestic demand fluctuation on the export of industrial manufactured goods will switch smoothly between the two mechanisms.

Key words: Export of Industrial Manufactured Goods, Domestic Demand, Production Capacity Constraints, Nonlinear STR Model