关键词: 生育率, 新生人口, APC模型, 队列效应

Abstract:

There was a surge of births which happened in 2005 to 2010 in Beijing when the births of China kept declining, which could not be explained by the volatility of population, women of child-bearing age or fertility rate. Using the dynamic data of fertility of women in different age, the structural change of fertility has been researched based on APC model in this thesis. It is found that the lagged peak of childbearing age and higher fertility rate in older childbearing women, which are the sources of structural changes in fertility rate, has brought the surge of births in Beijing. The estimation results of APC model show that the women with highest fertility desire and at the peak of childbearing age, who were born before and after 1970, have caused the surge in births.

Key words: Fertility Rate, Births, APC Model, Cohort Effect