关键词: 城市化, 收入差距, 拐点, 倒U形假说

Abstract: Recently there is a popular view that China's overall income gap has reached the turning point, and then the income gap will gradually decline. By using a two-sector model, it examines the relationship between urbanization and the overall income gap. Theoretical analysis shows that ignoring the impact of the urban and rural income gap and income distribution overlap will cause underestimateion of the overall income gap and the misjudgement of the turning point. With the urbanization process continuing, the urban income gap contributes more to the overall expansion of the growing income gap, and the under-reporting matter in the urban high-income groups makes urban income gap underestimated. By using a two-sector model to simulate and to predict, it finds that the overall income gap will still stay at a high level over the next decade with the urbanization process continuing, and the so-called upcoming turning points which the income gap locates at, are likely to be a “high knee” without much practical significance.

Key words: Urbanization, Income Gap, Turning Point, Inverted-U Hypothesis