关键词: 农村劳动力外出, 农业效率, 土地边际产出

Abstract: Grain output has increased for the tenth consecutive year along with the large-scale migration of rural labor force, does migration make rural household less productive? This paper use the RCRE data and Endogenous Switching Regression model to analyze the impact of migration on the agricultural efficiency. The results show that migration may improve the marginal output of land. But from the robust analysis, we also find that there may be a decaying effect of the migration on the agricultural efficiency. The effect was larger in the first three years after the migration, but declined gradually to a varying extent later. The main reasons to maintain the grain output may be that the rural households increase investment of chemical fertilizer to replace migrated labor force. We should promote the transformation of agricultural development pattern to realize sustainable agricultural development under the irreversible trend of labor migration by cultivating new peasants, developing circulative agriculture and constructing ecological compensation mechanism.

Key words: Rural Migration, Agricultural Efficiency, Marginal Output of Land