关键词: 中央企业, 宏观经济, 合成指数, 非线性Granger检验, MS-VAR模型

Abstract: Based on business cycle composite index method, this paper constructed the consistent composite indexes of central enterprises and macro economy respectively. Then intrinsic relations between central enterprises and macro economy were analyzed on the basis of examining their fluctuation characteristics. The results showed that the operating of central enterprises took on typical counter-cyclical features before 2008. The development of central enterprises was ahead of macro economy volatility obviously in the period from 2009 to 2013. The findings of linear and nonlinear Granger causality test indicate that there are bidirectional influences between central enterprises and macro economy. The study of impulse response function in the MS-VAR model reveals that the positive impact of central enterprises on macro economy are strengthening firstly and then weakening. Compared to macro economy, the central enterprises have more significant effects on themselves through whole industrial chain circulation and the mechanism of collaborative development.

Key words: Central Enterprises, Macro Economy, Composite Index, Nonlinear Granger Test, MS-VAR Model