统计研究

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中国城乡消费差距的拐点判定及其增长效应

高帆   

  • 出版日期:2014-12-15 发布日期:2014-12-15

The Inflection Point of China’s Urban and Rural Consumption and its Economic Growth Effect

Gao Fan   

  • Online:2014-12-15 Published:2014-12-15

摘要: 本文利用1992-2012年我国29个省区的面板数据,采用固定效应模型实证研究了城市化对城乡消费差距的影响、以及城乡消费差距对经济增长的作用。结果显示:城市化是引致城乡消费差距变动的核心变量,且城市化导致中国的城乡消费差距呈现出先增后减的“倒U型”趋势,“倒U型”拐点大致发生在2003年,东部地区城乡消费差距的“倒U型”趋势显著于中西部地区。上世纪90年代初期以来,我国的城乡消费差距与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定关系,城乡消费差距拉大对经济增长产生了负面效应,且这种负面效应在东部要比中西部表现得更为显著。可见,我国的城市化、城乡消费差距和经济增长之间存在着依次影响的关系,且这种影响关系具有时段差异性和区域异质性。

关键词: 城乡消费差距;城市化;经济增长;&ldquo, 倒U型&rdquo, 趋势

Abstract: This paper has analyzed the relationships of urbanization, urban -rural consumption gap and economic growth according to panel data of China’s 29 provinces from 1992 to 2012. The results show that, urbanization is the core factor which causes the change of urban -rural consumption gap; there is inverted U trend in China’s urban and rural consumption gap; the inflection point of inverted U trend appeared in 2003; and the inverted U trend in eastern region is more significant than that in western and central regions. Since the early 1990s, there has been a long-term stable relationship between urban-rural consumption gap and economic growth in China. The gap between urban and rural consumption has a negative effect on economic growth, and the negative effects in eastern region is more significant than those in western and central regions. Among the urbanization, urban -rural consumption gap and economic growth, there is some influence in turn, which has the diversity in time and region.

Key words: the gap between urban and rural consumption, urbanization, economic growth, inverted U trend