统计研究

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中等收入人口规模统计测度新方法及应用

王艳明等   

  • 出版日期:2014-10-15 发布日期:2014-10-14

A New Method and its Applications for Evaluating the Population Size of Middle Income Group

Wang Yanming et al.   

  • Online:2014-10-15 Published:2014-10-14

摘要: 现有的中等收入人口规模统计测度方法,要么依赖于中等收入界限划分,要么存在不能完全排序情况,具有一定局限性。为此,考虑了三种不同方案,对M-曲线进行积分,构造出新指数,用于揭示中等收入人口规模变动规律。研究表明:这一新指数是一个综合指数,既无需提供中等收入界限,又能够实现完全排序,可以很好地用于中等收入人口规模的历史评价与地区比较。最后,将新指数应用于中国城镇居民分组数据进行实证研究,发现在2001年到2006年间,中等收入人口规模出现大幅度缩小,而在2006到2011年间,中等收入人口规模有所增加。在与世界其他国家对比分析中,中等收入人口规模从高到低依次为:日本、中国、英国、美国、印度。

关键词: 中等收入人口规模, 综合指数, 收入分布, M-曲线, S-曲线

Abstract: The existing approaches have two main disadvantages. Some methods depend on middle income demarcation, and some methods can only get partial ordering, not complete ordering. To tackle these two issues, we construct a new index to track variation of middle income population size through integrating M-curve by three different weighting schemes. As a composite index, the new index can be used for historical evaluation and regional comparison of middle income population size, which does not depend on middle income demarcation and can get complete ordering. At last, the index is applied to integrated data of Chinese urban residents. The empirical results show that the population size of middle income group in China decreased sharply from 2001 to 2006, and enlarged from 2006 to 2011. In comparison with other countries, we find that the population size of middle income group of some countries can be ordered as follow: Japan, China, United Kingdom, United States, India.

Key words: Population Size of Middle Income Group, Composite index, Income distribution, M-curve, S-curve