统计研究

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中国要素替代弹性估计

郝枫 盛卫燕   

  • 出版日期:2014-07-15 发布日期:2014-07-14

Elasticity Estimates of Factor Substitution in China

Hao Feng & Shen Weiyan   

  • Online:2014-07-15 Published:2014-07-14

摘要: 要素替代弹性是经济研究中的重要参数,对经济增长和要素分配研究至关重要。本文基于一般要素增强型CES生产函数,利用1978-2011年省级面板数据,以变系数面板模型估计我国替代弹性时间序列。主要发现为:我国替代弹性明显小于1(0.23-0.55之间),改革时期基本呈上升趋势;此时劳动增强型技术表现出资本偏向,构成近期我国劳动份额持续下降的重要原因。最后,对该领域未来发展方向进行展望。

关键词: 要素替代弹性, 有偏技术进步, 一般要素增强型CES生产函数

Abstract: As an important parameter in economics research, the elasticity of substitution (σ) plays a crucial role in economic growth and factor distribution of income.With China’s provincial data from 1978 to 2011, we use CES production function with general factor-augmenting technical progress to estimate σ series by variable parameter panel data model. The main findings are: (1) σ is significantly below unity (0.22-0.55), and shows an increasing trend in the Reform period; (2) so the labor-augmenting technical progress is capital-biased, which provides a reasonable explaination of decreasing labor’s income shares. At last, we give an outlook for future research.

Key words: Elasticity of Factor Substitution, Biased Technical Progress, General Factor-Augmenting Technology CES Production Functions