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中国货币政策对房地产市场的非对称性效应

陈日清   

  • 出版日期:2014-06-15 发布日期:2014-07-14

The Asymmetric Effects of China Monetary Policy on Real Estate Market

Riqing Chen   

  • Online:2014-06-15 Published:2014-07-14

摘要: 本文基于国房景气指数及马尔科夫区制转换模型研究了中国货币政策对房地产市场的影响。研究发现,中国货币政策对房地产市场影响存在非对称效应:一是货币政策在房地产市场处于“平稳期”时,对房地产市场几乎没有作用,但是在房地产市场处于“上行期”和“下行期”时作用明显;二是预期货币政策变动对房地产市场具有预期调控作用,非预期货币政策变动则会弱化货币政策的预期调控作用,因此,具有一定规则、平稳可预期的货币政策将有助于维护我国房地产市场健康平稳发展。另外,现阶段适宜的房地产市场调控货币政策中介目标为货币供应量,而利率对房地产市场的调控作用可能有限。

关键词: 货币政策, 中国房地产市场, 马尔科夫区制转换模型, 非对称效应, 国房景气指数

Abstract: This paper based on Chinese Real Estate Climate index (CREC index) and the Markov regime switching model to study about the effects of China monetary policy on Chinese Real Estate Market (CREM). The conclusion is that there are asymmetric effects of China monetary policy on CREM: firstly, the monetary policy has no effect on CREM in stable state, but has significant effect on CREM in both upward state and downward state; secondly, the expected change of monetary policy has better performance and the unexpected one will weaken the performance of China monetary policy. In addition, the money supply M2 is appropriate intermediate objective of monetary policy but the market rate is not one.

Key words: Monetary Policy, Chinese Real Estate Market, Markov Regime Switching Model, Asymmetric Effects, Chinese Real Estate Climate Index