关键词: 全球化, 全值统计, 增加值统计, 投入产出表

Abstract: The development of globalization promotes the extension of the production chain of tradable goods, the value of exports are organized by different countries and different production modules, which leads to the statistics of the customs methods cannot get the value added in the global production chains correctly. The double counting exhumation of value-added will make the processing trade surplus overestimated and distort the degree of trade imbalance, especially for the developing countries. By using the value-added methods, this paper re-estimates the surplus for China and compares the change of these two methods. We find that, the trade flow and surplus accounted by the customs methods are larger than the value-added method, which was increasing from 14.1% and 20.3% in 2002 to 20.5% and 24.9% in 2007, respectively. The importance for improving the customs based on statistics methods of international trade is not only to correct the misjudgment of the real external imbalance for the county, but also can avoid giving the wrong weight in estimating the real exchange rate and reduce the disputes.

Key words: Globalization, Gross-value Statistics,;Value-added Statistics, Input-output Table