关键词: 基本均衡汇率, 经常账户缺口法, Bootstrap估计

Abstract: Discrepancies in measurement methods made results of studies on the RMB equilibrium exchange rate level different. Draw on recent research papers, this study focused on the measurement of the reasonable interval of RMB’s equilibrium exchange rate and explored the underlying macro-variables that are driving its change, by using current account gap method, the FFER approach with Vector Error Correction model and the ML-ARCH model. And by introducing productivity and net foreign assets variable, we attempted to provide a better understanding of exchange rate movement and determination. Our results confirmed that the level of RMB is undervalued and that, fundamentals of productivity enhancement, terms of trade changes and growth-oriented economic development model all contributed to the trend of equilibrium exchange rate. Also, our study revealed the valuation effect of exchange rate changes can significantly affect the level of net foreign assets.

Key words: Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Current Account Gap, Bootstrap Estimation