• 论文 •

### 中国通货膨胀预期的结构和持久性

• 出版日期:2012-05-15 发布日期:2012-05-03

### The Research on the Structure and Persistent of Inflation Expectation in China

Wang Yajiong

• Online:2012-05-15 Published:2012-05-03

Abstract: Using advanced Carlson-Parkin model, this paper converted the qualitative data to quantitative data from urban citizens survey on their expected future price changes. Furthermore, this paper made structural study on the nature of inflation expectation, which concluded that the changes of core inflation expectation was more consistent with the hypothesis of rational expectation, but the inflation expectation from the changes of food prices was consistent with adaptive expectation. The persistent of inflation expectation was weak and the actual core inflation expectation did not has persistent effect on the expectation, while the actual inflation from the changes of food price had. Additionally, feedback from the expectation to the actual inflation was not stable. Therefore, in term of the core inflation, the continuity and stability of monetary policy is particularly important.