关键词: 人口结构变化, 储蓄率, 投资率, 经济增长, SYS-GMM

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of demographic change on savings, investment and economic growth by using a panel dataset consist of 29 provinces in China over a 20 year period. Different demographic indicators are introduced into savings, investment within the traditional growth regression frameworks that are estimated using both the fixed effect model and the system-generalized method SYS-GMM. We also use the 30-year lagged employment as instrumental variables to identify the causal effect of old dependency on economic growth. Our results show that the old-age dependency ratio has a significant positive effect on savings, investment and growth. The population growth rate has a negative effect on saving rate and investment but no effect on economic growth. The working age population rate has a negative effect on savings rate, positive effect on investment and growth rates but the coefficients associated with the estimates are insignificant. The findings are robust after controlling for other institutional and demographic variables.

Key words: Demographic Change, Savings, Investment；Economic Growth, SYS-GMM