统计研究

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中国碳排放强度影响因素实证分析

孙欣 张可蒙   

  • 出版日期:2014-02-15 发布日期:2014-02-08

The Empirical analysis on Influence Factors of Carbon Emission Intensity in China

Xin Sun & Kemeng Zhang   

  • Online:2014-02-15 Published:2014-02-08

摘要: 本文考虑在对外开放与城市化快速发展背景下,结合规模效应、技术效应和结构效应等三个途径理论研究中国碳排放强度影响因素,选择第二产业比重、人均GDP、能源强度、对外贸易依存度和城市化率等五个影响因素,根据协整理论分析认为1980-2011年我国碳强度与五个影响因素变量之间存在长期均衡关系。通过构建状态空间模型并运用卡尔曼滤波对其估计分析,结果验证了前面的结论,并分别得到各因素对我国碳排放强度的动态影响。最后根据结论提出政策建议。

关键词: 碳排放强度, 影响因素, 协整理论, 状态空间模型, 动态影响

Abstract: This paper considers the background of external liberalization and the rapid development of urbanization, and combine with of the scale effect, technical effect and structural effect of three theoretical researches of Influence factors of carbon emission intensity China, select the proportion of the second industry, per capita GDP, energy intensity, the degree of dependence on foreign trade and urbanization rate of five factors, according to the analysis of the cointegration theory there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between China's carbon intensity of 1980-2011 years and five variables. By constructing the state space model and analysis using Calman filter to estimate, results prove the above conclusion, and obtained the dynamic influence of various factors on the strength of carbon emissions in China. Finally, according to the relevant conclusions, it puts forward policy recommendations.

Key words: Carbon Emission Intensity, Influencing Factors, Cointegration Theory, State Space Model, Dynamic Influence