统计研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (5): 77-81.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

城镇社会养老保险、人口出生率与内生增长

杨再贵   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-05-15 发布日期:2009-05-15

Urban Public Pension, Fertility and Endogenous Growth in China

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-05-15 Published:2009-05-15

摘要: 在具有内生增长的交叠世代模型框架内,本文考察中国的部分积累制养老保险对人口出生率、经济增长和家庭养老保障的影响。假设个人为拥有孩子和老年期得到孩子的物质支持而感到满足,子女感谢父母养育之恩的默契总起作用。证明了提高企业缴费率会导致人口出生率和代际转移率下降、经济增长率上升,而个人缴费对这三者没有影响。进而求解了能合理控制人口规模、促进经济适度增长并鼓励适当家庭养老保障的理想的企业缴费率区间。

关键词: 社会养老保险, 人口出生率, 内生增长

Abstract: Within a framework of an overlapping-generations endogenous growth model, this paper examines the effects of China’s partially funded public pension system on the fertility, economic growth and family old-age security. It is assumed that individuals satisfy for both having children and getting old-age material support from their children; the tacit agreement for children to appreciate their parents is always operative. It is shown that raising the firm contribution rate reduces the fertility and intergenerational transfer rate, and increases the economic growth rate. The individual contribution has no effect on the three rates. This paper also finds the optimal firm contribution rate interval to rationally control population size, promote economic growth and encourage some family old-age security.


 

Key words: Public Pension, Fertility, Endogenous Growth