关键词: 城镇化, 经济增长, VAR模型, 面板数据

Abstract: This paper uses Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model to explain the dynamic relationship between urbanization and economic growth on the basis of time series data - urbanization rate and GDP per capital from 1978 to 2009; then applying impulse response function (IRF) and variance decomposition, this paper analyzes the interaction between the economic growth and urbanization. To cover the shortage that time series data contains only two-dimensional information-time and index, we introduce panel data containing information of cross section-time-index. The unit root test and the cointegration test of panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2000 to 2009, show that there exists long-term balance relationship between urbanization and economic growth. At last, via making use of fixed effects unrestricted models to measure the urbanization elasticity, we conclude that increasing urbanization rate by a percentage point keeps up economic growth of around 7.1% a year.

Key words: Urbanization, Economic Growth, VAR Model, Panel Data