统计研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (12): 14-21.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

地区与国家GDP核算总量数据衔接方法比较研究

向书坚 柴士改   

  • 出版日期:2011-12-15 发布日期:2011-12-15

Comparative Study on Data Convergence Methods about Regional and National GDP Accounting

XIANG Shu-jian CHAI Shi-gai   

  • Online:2011-12-15 Published:2011-12-15

摘要: 本文以国家数据为准,通过采用2005-2009年的数据为样本,从理论与实证上比较分析了地区与国家GDP数据衔接的三种方法即Geary和Stark的产出估算方法、线性调整法与辅助回归法,比较结果显示:(1)从理论上分析,三种方法都有其合理性,只是辅助回归法较另两种方法更具可取性。(2)从衔接效果上看,辅助回归法优于Geary和Stark的产出估算方法,Geary和Stark的产出估算方法又优于线性调整法。不过不同的方法皆有相应的适用场合与特点以及不同的衔接效果,因而只能说三种方法中有趋优的方法,但不能明确断定何种方法可以具体应用于实际数据衔接中并能达到良好的调整效果。

关键词: 地区GDP, Geary和Stark产出估算法, 线性调整法, 辅助回归法

Abstract: Subject to national data and use 2005-2009 year datas for sample, this paper made a comparative study from theoretical and empirical evidence on three data convergence methods including Stark and Geary’s output estimation method, Linear adjustment method and auxiliary regression method about regional and national GDP accounting. Comparison shows :(1) Three methods have its own rationality from theoretical analysis perspective. But we also found that the auxiliary regression method is more than the other two methods in desirability.(2)The convergence of results from the point of view, we found that the auxiliary regression method is superior to the Geary and Stark's output estimation method, the Geary and Stark's output estimation method is better than the linear adjustment method. Due to different methods having its own application, characteristics and convergence effects, we can only concluded that there is only near-optimal method amony three methods while can not clearly determine what methods can be applied to the actual data convergence and can be adjusted to achieve good results.

Key words: Regional GDP;Stark and Geary&rsquo, s output estimation method;Linear adjustment method;Auxiliary regression method