统计研究 ›› 2000, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (6): 40-43.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

预测新产品市场扩散的状态空间方法研究

董景荣, 杨秀苔   

  • 出版日期:2000-06-15 发布日期:2012-02-14

Study on the Prediction of the State Space of New Product’s Market Diffusion

DONG Jing-Rong, YANG Xiu-Tai   

  • Online:2000-06-15 Published:2012-02-14

Abstract: A firm’s ability to compete in new product markets is vital its profitability and long-term survival. Therefore, it is important to forecast accurately the Marketing diffusion of new products in designing Marketing strategies for new product planning and management. The paper introduce a new estimation procedure, augmented kalman Filter with continuous state and Discrete observations(AKF(C-D), for estimating the state space Models of the diffusion process of a new product. This method is directly applicable to differential diffusion models without imposing constraints on the model structure or the nature of the unknown parameters. The authors compare AKF(C-D) empirically with three other estimation procedures, demonstrating AKF(C-D)’s superior prediction performance.