• 论文 •

### “九五”期间我国经济周期的变动趋势与预测

• 出版日期:1997-06-15 发布日期:2012-02-14

### On the Trend of Economic Cycle during the 9th -5-years Period and Its Forecasting

WU Guo-Fu, CUI Bin

• Online:1997-06-15 Published:2012-02-14

Abstract: Base on the characteristics of periodical fluctuation exist in the economic running in our country, the change trend of economic cycle during the 9th -5-years period were forecasted using the periodical auto-regression model, and its running orbit and high-low points were measured. Then, combined with the forecasted results, the characteristics in our economic fluctuation during the period were analyzed. And finally, two permanent trends in future economic running were showed: our economy grows at high speed and its fluctuation tends to be stable and convergence.