基于全要素生产率的中国GDP数据准确性评估

统计研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 81-86.

基于全要素生产率的中国GDP数据准确性评估

刘洪昌先宇

出版日期:2011-02-15 发布日期:2011-02-25

An Evaluation of the Accuracy of China’s GDP Data Based on Total Factor Productivity

LIU Hong- Chang-Xian-Yu

Online:2011-02-15 Published:2011-02-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 中国GDP数据的准确性评估问题，一直受到国内外各方面的关注。本文从反逻辑思路，考察作为技术进步的替代性指标全要素生产率（TFP），反观GDP及其增长率是否准确或可信。运用隐性变量法通过建立状态空间模型测算中国1979－2008年间TFP增长率，分析GDP数据是否存在误差。结果表明1981年、1988年和2000年的TFP增长率的下降，找不到非正常情况下外生因素的影响，本文认为这是GDP核算误差造成的结果。

关键词: GDP准确性, TFP增长率, 隐性变量法

Abstract: The evaluation of the accuracy of China’s GDP data has long been attracted the concern of all over the world. From the anti-logical perspective, this paper focuses on whether China’s GDP growth is accurate or credible through of total factor productivity (TFP) which is an alternative indicator of technological advances. By the utility of latent variable approach (LV) and state space model, the paper measures TFP growth from 1979 to 2008 in China in order to find the accounting error of GDP data. The results show that the decline in TFP growth rates in 1981,1988 and 2000 can’t be explained by non-exogenous factors under abnormal circumstances, which means it may be caused by GDP accounting error.

Key words: Accuracy of GDP Statistics, TFP Growth, Latent Variable Approach

刘洪昌先宇. 基于全要素生产率的中国GDP数据准确性评估[J]. 统计研究, 2011, 28(2): 81-86.

LIU Hong- Chang-Xian-Yu. An Evaluation of the Accuracy of China’s GDP Data Based on Total Factor Productivity[J]. , 2011, 28(2): 81-86.