统计研究 ›› 1997, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (2): 75-79.

• 论文 • 上一篇    

一种无偏组合预测方法及其贝叶斯模型

曾勇; 唐小我   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:1997-04-07 发布日期:2012-02-14

Zeng Yong; Tang Xiaowo   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:1997-04-07 Published:2012-02-14

Abstract: This paper discusses several methods to test unbiasedness in forecast models, then adopted Holden and Peel’s ideas determining the unbiasedness, the authors analyze the method to determine optimal combination forecast and its meaning after adding bias correction item into B-G model under the conditions of reservation or abandonment of that the sum of weights equal to one. Finally, the authors deduce the Bayes model related to the method.