关键词: 组合预测, 有效度, 优化模型

Abstract: This paper sets up a combined forecasting optimal model whose objective function is the effectiveness indicator of the forecasting method in order to calculating weight coefficients of the combined forecasting method. Then, based on the analyses of combined forecasting precision sequence, the paper simplifies the model mentioned above, gets a optimal model for calculating approximate solution of the combined forecasting method which is only a combination of two forecasting methods and obtains the calculating formula of optimal approximate solution. Finally, the paper gives two practical cases of the model.