统计研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (12): 48-55.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

投资率门限特征、消费促进与经济增长:1995-2007

周泳宏 唐志军   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-12-15 发布日期:2009-12-15

The Threshold Character of Investment, Consumption Improvement and Economic Growth: 1995-2007

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-12-15 Published:2009-12-15

摘要: 目前,国际经济形势欠佳,出口市场严峻,拉动内需成为我国经济工作重点,投资与消费的关系再次受到学界关注。本文阐述了投资率和消费率协调统一的关系,并运用1995-2007年中国省区面板数据,根据投资率的门限特征进行非线性回归。分析结果表明,投资率主要存在两个门限值,第一个门限值位于44%,在该值以下,消费率的提高显著促进了经济增长;第二个门限值为36%左右,在该值以下,消费率的提高进一步拉动经济增长速度。然而,单纯依靠消费需求拉动将导致投资不足的“陷阱”,为此,本文提出了两项政策建议:挖掘可极大拉动第二产业增长的新消费点;在东部和中西部之间实现有所差异的战略布局。

关键词: 门限, 投资, 消费, 非线性

Abstract: At present, because of the depression of international economic situation and export market, stimulating domestic demand becomes to be important of China’s economic work, and the relationship between investment and consumption has been discussed by economists again. In this paper, we describe the principle of dealing the relation of investment rate and consumption rate reasonably, and do non-linear regression using the Chinese panel date from 1995 to 2007 according to investment threshold characters. The result shows that there are two investment rate thresholds: one is 44%, and consumption rate improvement increases the growth rate when investment rate is below this threshold; the other is 36%, and consumption rate improvement increase economic growth rate greatly when investment rate is below this threshold. However, to rely solely on the consumption demand will lead to insufficient investment "trap". According to this problem, this paper suggests two policy recommendations: create new consumption which can greatly promote the growth of the secondary industry; implement different strategies in the east and central and western regions. 

Key words: Threshold, Investment, Consumption, Non-linear