统计研究 ›› 2008, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (11): 3-8.

• 论文 •    下一篇

中国地区经济增长的收敛性及其影响因素 ——基于黄河流域数据的实证分析

周国富 夏祥谦   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2008-11-15 发布日期:2008-11-15

The Convergence and the Impact Factors of Regional Economic Growth in China ——An Empirical Analysis of The Yellow River Basin

Zhou Guofu & Xia Xiangqian   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-11-15 Published:2008-11-15

摘要: 黄河流域各省区经济发展的不平衡基本上是我国东、中、西部差距的一个缩影。本文采用基尼系数和泰尔指数分析了黄河流域地区差距的变化趋势;并根据扩展的MRW模型,分析了初始经济发展水平、物质资本、人力资本、劳动、经济市场化程度、基础设施状况对这一地区经济增长的影响。结果表明,黄河流域九省区不存在 收敛,但存在显著的条件收敛。最后,基于本文的分析结论,还就如何缩小黄河流域乃至全国范围的地区差距提出了相应的政策建议。

关键词: 黄河流域, 经济增长, 条件收敛, 地区差距

Abstract: The imbalance of economic development of the Yellow River Basin is basically a microcosm of regional disparity of China. This paper uses the Gini coefficient and the Theil index to analyze the trend of regional disparity of the Yellow River Basin, and according to the extended MRW model, we analyze the various impact factors including the initial level of economic development、physical capital、human capital、labor、the degree of market economy、infrastructure status on economic growth. The results show that there is no convergence, but there is a significant conditional convergence. Finally, based on the conclusion of this paper, we put forward some policy recommendations on how to reduce the regional gap in the Yellow River Basin, even the whole country.


 

Key words: The Yellow River Basin, Economic growth, Conditional convergence, Regional disparity