统计研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (5): 100-105.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国个人住房抵押贷款违约风险影响因素的实证研究

马 宇   

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-05-15 发布日期:2009-05-15

Empirical Analysis of China Individual Housing Mortgage Loan Default Influence Factor

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-05-15 Published:2009-05-15

摘要: 次贷危机的爆发提醒人们重新认识个人住房抵押贷款违约带来的风险。现阶段,我国商业银行已经发放了大量个人住房抵押贷款,那么,哪些因素可能对我国个人住房抵押贷款违约产生显著影响,这是需要我们深入研究的问题。本文在实地调研的基础上,利用637组数据,对影响我国个人住房抵押贷款违约风险的因素进行了实证分析。研究结果发现,借款人受教育程度越高,工作行业稳定程度和垄断程度越高,违约率越低;借款人购买住房面积越大,每月偿还贷款金额与家庭收入之比越高,违约率越高;本地人比外地人违约率高;购买现房借款人比购买期房借款人的违约率高。对违约影响较大的因素依次是住房面积、月还款额占家庭收入比、是否期房、受教育程度。

Abstract: The Subprime Crisis warn us to re-understand the individual housing mortgage loan default risks, at this stage, China’s commercial banks have issued a large number of individual housing mortgage loans, then what are the factors that default individual housing mortgage loans have a significant impact , the problem is to be studied in depth. In the field of basic research , this paper used 637 sets of data , analyzed the impact on our country individual housing mortgage loan default risk factors. Results Show the higher the level of education of borrowers, the higher level of job stability and monopoly, the lower default rates; the greater the area of housing purchase, the higher the ratio of monthly loan repayment amount and household income,the higher default rates; locals than outsiders of high default rates; borrowers purchase existing houses than future houses have high default rates. A greater impact on the default factor, followed by housing area, on the repayment amount of household income ratio, whether future houses, level of education. 

 

Key words: individual housing mortgage loan, default risk, empirical analysis