关键词: 住房需求, 结构分解, 趋势变动, 城镇住房, 城镇化

Abstract: This paper identifies three major sources of new housing demand in urban China, namely, natural growth of urban households, migrant growth of urban households, and demolition of existing housing. Based on this decomposition, a systematic method is designed to quantitatively measure the new housing demand in urban China based on the population census data. Using this method, this paper estimates the annual amount of new housing demand in urban China during 2001—2010 and 2011—2015 both on the national and provincial levels. The results show that during this period, the relationship between new housing supply and demand changes from basic balance to oversupply. At the same time, the passive demand caused by demolition replaces the active demand caused by natural growth and migrant growth and becomes the main source of new housing demand. The eastern, central, and western provinces show significant differences in the demand scale, the supply-demand ratio, and the demand structure. This paper also provides a quantitative prediction on the future trend of new housing demand in 2021—2030. Since all the three sources of new housing demand are subject to a substantial decline, the national annual amount of new housing demand is expected to decrease by 33% during 2021—2025 and 53% during 2026—2030, compared with the annual amount in 2011—2015. The estimation and prediction methods established in this paper can provide direct support for governments’ preparation of housing development planning in the “ 14th Five-year Plan Period” and the strategy-making of real estate firms.

Key words: Housing Demand, Structural Decomposition, Trend Changes, Urban Housing, Urbanization