统计研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (9): 56-67.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.09.006

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ICT投资、互联网普及和全要素生产率

谢莉娟 陈锦然 王诗桪   

  • 出版日期:2020-09-25 发布日期:2020-09-18

ICT Investment, Internet Penetration and Total Factor Productivity

Xie Lijuan Chen Jinran Wang Shixun   

  • Online:2020-09-25 Published:2020-09-18

摘要: 本文使用DEA-Malmquist指数方法对2002-2012年我国分行业全要素生产率、技术效率与技术进步进行测算,并基于我国地区投入产出表构建了ICT资本投入强度。在此基础上,本文就ICT投资对生产率的影响进行了实证检验。研究发现,ICT投资对全要素生产率提升具有积极作用,并且主要通过ICT投资促进技术效率提升实现。面板门限回归模型的结果显示,只有达到一定互联网普及率时,ICT投资促进技术效率提升的作用才显现,并在高互联网普及率时进一步增强;但在高互联网普及率下,ICT 投资对技术进步存在抑制作用,在全要素生产率层面表现为ICT 投资的促进作用消失。因此,现实的ICT 投资应重视通过信息化管理提升行业资源的有效利用能力,以最大化技术效率对全要素生产率的贡献;应充分考虑不同行业和地区的互联网普及程度,以深度激发“连接经济”对于释放ICT效能的互补性作用;还应注意配套相应产业政策,以减轻互联网发展对技术进步的阻碍作用。

关键词: ICT投资, 全要素生产率, 技术效率增长, 技术进步变动, 互联网门限效应

Abstract: This paper uses the DEA-Malmquist index method to measure the total factor productivity,technical efficiency and technological change of China by sector from 2002 to 2012, and constructs the ICT capital input intensity based on China’s regional input and output tables. On this basis, this paper empirically tests the impact of ICT investment on productivity. This paper finds that the ICT investment has a positive effect on total factor productivity growth, and this effect is largely achieved by ICT investment promoting technical efficiency growth. The panel threshold regression model shows that only when it reaches a certain Internet penetration rate does the positive effect of the ICT investment on technical efficiency begin to appear, and this positive effect is further enhanced when it reaches a high Internet penetration rate. However, with the high internet penetration rate, ICT investment has a dampening effect on technological change, and the positive effect of ICT investment on total factor productivity disappears. Therefore, when we make the ICT investment, we should try to improve the capacity of the industry resource utilization through information management, in order to maximize the contribution of technical efficiency to total factor productivity. What is more, we should fully consider the Internet penetration rate in different industries and regions, in order to stimulate the complementary effects of “connection economy” on the ICT effectiveness deeply. At the same time, attention should also be paid to designing the corresponding industrial policies in order to mitigate the potential obstruction effect of the Internet development on technological change.

Key words: ICT Investment, Total Factor Productivity, Technical Efficiency Growth, Technological Change, Internet Threshold Effects