统计研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 46-58.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.04.004

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老龄化背景下退休对城镇家庭金融资产选择的影响——基于模糊断点回归设计

贾男   

  • 出版日期:2020-04-25 发布日期:2020-04-15

The Impact of Retirement on Urban Household Financial Assets Selection in the Aging Context—Based on Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design

Jia Nan   

  • Online:2020-04-25 Published:2020-04-15

摘要: 随着老龄化程度日益加深,我国退休人口将会呈现增长趋势。本文研究退休作为一种个体工作状态的外生冲击,如何影响家庭的金融资产选择行为。利用中国家庭金融调查微观数据,采用模糊断点回归设计的非参数估计方法,本文发现退休不会造成家庭风险金融资产配置比例发生显著变化,但会引起风险资产种类构成的明显变动,现金、股票和基金在家庭金融资产中所占比重显著下降,银行存款、理财产品和借出款所占比重则显著上升。影响机制检验发现,退休对家庭金融资产选择的这种影响,可能是通过退休之后家庭的风险态度变化、金融知识变化和收入冲击造成的。本文研究表明,对退休人口进行金融知识普及和金融风险教育十分必要。

关键词: 退休, 金融资产选择, 模糊断点回归

Abstract: With the deepening of aging, the retired population in China will show an increasing trend. This paper studies how retirement, as an exogenous shock of an individual’s working state, affects the family’s financial assets selection behavior. Based on the micro data of China Household Financial Survey and the nonparametric estimation method of Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, this paper finds that retirement will not cause significant changes in the allocation proportion of household risk financial assets, but will cause significant changes in the composition of the types of risk assets. The proportion of cash, stocks and funds in household financial assets significantly decreases, and the proportion of bank deposits, financial products and loans to relatives or friends increases significantly instead. The examination of influencing mechanism shows that the impact of retirement on household financial assets selection may be caused by the change of family risk attitude, financial knowledge and negative income shock. These findings indicate that it is necessary to popularize financial knowledge and financial risk education for retired people.

Key words: Retirement, Financial Assets Selection, Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity