统计研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 4-16.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.01.001

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2016版CSNA有关FISIM系列修订及其影响的定量测度

徐蔼婷 李佩瑾   

  • 出版日期:2020-01-25 发布日期:2020-02-28

The Series of Revision of FISIM in CSNA 2016 and Quantitative Measurement of Their Effects

Xu Aiting & Li Peijin   

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  • Online:2020-01-25 Published:2020-02-28

摘要: 《中国国民经济核算体系(2016)》就FISIM核算主体、核算范围、核算方法、分摊方法进行了修订。本文较系统地考察了系列修订对FISIM产出和支出法GDP的影响路径,定量测算了系列修订对核心经济指标的具体影响效果。本文的测算结果表明,因采用2016版CSNA方法进行核算,FISIM产出提高了21.83%,其中,核算主体修订引致的“拓展效应”、核算范围修订引致的“缩减效应”和核算方法修订引致的“调整效应”分别贡献了FISIM产出规模提升的69.77%、-72.78%、103.03%。FISIM系列修订使生产法GDP规模提高了0.33%。尽管第一次经济普查时已经过一次调整,FISIM分摊方法的再次调整仍将推动支出法GDP提升,并使得最终消费率提升至51.33%,净出口率提升至3.62%。FISIM核算方法的系列修订不仅更客观地反映出经济总量的提升与经济结构的优化,也更准确地刻画了利率市场化对我国金融中介服务的影响。

关键词: 2016版CSNA, 方法修订, FISIM产出, 参考利率法, GDP

Abstract: China’s System of National Accounts (CSNA) 2016 revised the accounting body, accounting scope, accounting method and allocation method of FISIM. This paper systematically inspects the impact path of a series of revision on FISIM output and expenditurebased GDP, and quantitatively measures the specific impact of the above revision on the core economic indicators. The calculation results show that the FISIM output scale based CSNA 2016 method has increased by 21.83%, among which the “expansion effect” caused by the revision of the accounting body, the “reduction effect” caused by the revision of the accounting scope, and the “adjustment effect” caused by the revision of the accounting method respectively contributed 69.77%, -72.78%, and 103.03% of the increase in FISIM output. The series of revision of FISIM increased the productionbased GDP by an average of 0.33%. Although one adjustment has been made in the first economic census, the readjustment of the FISIM allocation method has further increased the size of the expenditurebased GDP, increasing the final consumption rate and net export rate to 51.33% and 3.62% respectively. The series of revision of the FISIM accounting method not only more objectively reflect the improvement of economic aggregates and the optimization of economic structure, but also more accurately portray the impact of interest rate liberalization on China’s financial intermediary services.

Key words: CSNA 2016, Method Revision, FISIM Output, Reference Rate Method, GDP