关键词: 双边贸易强度, 价值链贸易强度, 经济周期联动, 增加值核算

Abstract: Based on China Inter-Regional Input-Output Tables of 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012, this paper investigates the relationship between value chain embedding and business cycle co-movement from the perspective of value added. Different from the gross value accounting method with problems of double accounting, this paper uses value added accounting method in the framework of complete value added decomposition of regional outflow to re-construct bilateral trade intensity and value chain trade intensity. Regression results show that bilateral trade intensity and value chain trade intensity have significantly positive and negative effects on business cycle co-movement, respectively, suggesting that Frankel-Rose effect and substitution effect of domestic regional division exist. From the perspective of geographic preference, geographic characteristics of supply-demand linkages in value added will strengthen the relationship between value added embedding and business cycle co-movement. Further, third party effect analysis indicates that bilateral trade intensity propagates fluctuation via other regions of China to a large degree, while the relationship between value chain intensity and business cycle co-movement can hardly be affected by third party effect.

Key words: Bilateral Trade Intensity, Value Chain Trade Intensity, Business Cycle Co-movement, Value Added Accounting