统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 114-128.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.08.009

• • 上一篇    

函数型变量倾斜分位回归模型及其应用

田茂再 梅波   

  • 出版日期:2019-08-25 发布日期:2019-08-25

Tilting Quantile Regression Modeling of Functional Data and Its Application

Tian Maozai & Mei Bo   

  • Online:2019-08-25 Published:2019-08-25

摘要: 本文考虑函数型数据的结构特征,针对两类函数型变量分位回归模型(函数型因变量对标量自变量和函数型因变量对函数型自变量),基于函数型倾斜分位曲线的定义构建新型函数型倾斜分位回归模型。对于第二类模型,本文分别考虑样条基函数对模型系数展开和函数型主成分基函数对函数型自变量展开,得到倾斜分位回归模型的基本形式。参数估计采用成分梯度Boosting算法最小化加权非对称损失函数,提高计算效率。在理论上证明了倾斜分位回归模型的系数估计量均服从渐近正态分布。模拟和实证研究结果显示,倾斜分位回归模型比已有的逐点分位回归模型具有更好的拟合效果。根据积分均方预测误差准则,本文提出的模型有一致较好的预测能力。

关键词: 函数型数据, 函数型主成分, 倾斜分位回归, 积分均分预测误差, 渐近分布, 多发性硬化症

Abstract: This paper considers the functional features of data and develops a new type of tilting quantile regression model based on the definition of unconditional tilting quantile curve for two types of quantile regression models for functional data: functional-on-scalar regression model and functional-on-functional regression model. For the second type, this paper applies splines basis expansion on model coefficients and functional principal component basis expansion on the predictors and derives the generic formula of tilting quantile regression model. To improve the efficiency of parameter estimation, it adopts component-wise gradient boosting algorithm to minimize the weighted asymmetric loss function. In addition, this paper mathematically proves the asymptotic normal distribution of the estimates of parameters. Both the simulation and real data study shows that tilting quantile regression model fits better than the point-wise quantile regression model. According to the integral mean square prediction error (IMSPE), the model proposed here has better prediction than the existent models uniformly.

Key words: Functional Data, Functional PCA, Tilting Quantile Regression, IMSPE, Asymptotic Distribution, Multiple Sclerosis