关键词: 对外直接投资, Geweke因果关系检验, 指数, 动态空间杜宾模型

Abstract: Based on the revised Chenery “standard structure” model, this paper uses China’s provincial panel data of OFDI and industrial upgrading from 2003 to 2015 to empirically test the effect of outward foreign direct investment on China's industrial structure upgrading. Firstly, it uses Geweke causality test to analyze the relationship between outward foreign direct investment and industrial structure upgrading, The empirical results show that outward foreign direct investment not only promotes the upgrading of industrial structure in the local regions, but also that in neighboring regions. Obvious lag effect is also found in the upgrading of industrial structure. Industrial restructuring in the lag period benefited the upgrading of industrial structure in the current period. Further research finds that the China's outward foreign direct investment in promoting the upgrading of domestic industrial structure shows significant regional difference. Only the results exit in eastern regions, but it is not significant in the central and western regions.

Key words: Outward foreign direct investment, Geweke Causality Test, Index, Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model.