统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 17-28.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.04.002

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能源化工产业高级化与经济增长——兼论能源化工产业最优匹配

张文彬等   

  • 出版日期:2019-04-25 发布日期:2019-04-22

Energy and Chemical Industry Upgrading and Economic Growth ——A reconsideration of the Optimal Matching of Energy and Chemical Industry

Zhang Wenbin et al.   

  • Online:2019-04-25 Published:2019-04-22

摘要: 能源化工产业是重要的基础性产业,现阶段对能源化工产业高级化及其对经济增长影响研究的成果还较少。文章首先将能源化工产业分为能源开采业、能源加工业和化工产业三大产业,测算能源化工产业高级化水平,结果表明能源资源禀赋导致了能源化工高级化水平的“低端锁定”,能源富集区能源产业高级化水平远远低于非能源富集省份,能源化工产业空间错配现象突出。其次,实证检验能源化工产业高级化对经济增长的影响,结果表明提高能源化工高级化水平能够显著促进经济增长,且不同产业规模的能源化工产业高级化对经济增长的影响存在差异性。再次,采用滚动回归方法检验随着能源化工产业高级化水平和产业结构变动,能源化工产业高级化水平对经济增长影响的变动状况,探讨能源化工产业内部最优匹配问题,结果表明能源化工产业高级化水平在1.05-1.15之间、能源开采业占能源化工产业比重在0.20-0.40之间,能源化工产业高级化对经济增长的促进效应最大。最后提出优化能源富集区能源化工产业匹配度、促进化工产业富集区新产品和新技术研发以及缓解能源化工产业空间错配等方面的政策建议。

关键词: 能源化工产业, 高级化, 经济增长, 最优匹配

Abstract: Energy and chemical industry is an important basic industry, but there are few achievements on the research of energy and chemical industry upgrading and its impact on economic growth. Firstly, this paper divides the industry into three major industries: energy exploitation, energy processing and chemical industry, and estimates its advanced level. The results show that the energy resources endowment leads to the "low-end lock-in" of the advanced level of energy and chemical industry, which in energy-rich regions is far lower than that of non-energy-rich provinces, and the spatial mismatch of energy and chemical industry is prominent. Secondly, the paper empirically examines the impact of energy and chemical industry upgrading on economic growth. The results show that the level of energy and chemical industry upgrading can significantly promote economic growth, while the impact on economic growth of different industrial scales is different. Thirdly, the paper tests the change of influence with the level of energy and chemical industry upgrading and the industrial structure change using the rolling regression method, and discusses the internal optimal matching problem of energy and chemical industry. The results show that the effect of energy and chemical industry upgrading on economic growth will be greatest when the level of energy and chemical industry upgrading is between 1.05 and 1.15, and the proportion of energy exploitation industry to energy and chemical industry is between 0.20 and 0.40. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward to optimize the matching degree, promote the R&D of new products and technologies in chemical industry in energy-rich areas, and alleviate the spatial mismatch of energy and chemical industry.

Key words: Energy and Chemical Industry, Upgrading, Economic Growth, Optimal Matching