“溢出效应”抑或“污染效应”？——贸易自由化对工业二氧化硫排放的新视角与再测算

doi:10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.12 008

统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (12): 94-105.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.12 008

“溢出效应”抑或“污染效应”？——贸易自由化对工业二氧化硫排放的新视角与再测算

胡兆廉石大千

出版日期:2019-12-25 发布日期:2020-12-28

“Spillover Effect” or “Pollution Effect”?—A New Perspective and Re-measurement of the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Industrial Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

Hu Zhaolian & Shi Daqian

Online:2019-12-25 Published:2020-12-28

1. “溢出效应”抑或“污染效应”？——贸易自由化对工业二氧化硫排放的新视角与再测算（附件）.pdf(197KB)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 贸易自由化有助于实现区域比较优势，提升地区经济福利，但其对环境治理的作用效应存在较大争议。梳理关于环境污染及环境效率的研究可以发现，这一分歧的根源在于贸易自由化对环境污染所产生的结构效应存在较大的争议，因此难以对最终的环境效应进行测算。基于此，本文摒弃了对于环境污染效应的过度分解，从非污染即溢出的新视角，重新测算贸易自由化的环境效应；其次，本文将污染测算精确到地级市层面，并从城市异质性角度对环境污染的影响进行分析，以便从更小的区域单元探索环境效应。在实际操作层面，本文选取2003-2015年中国283个地级市面板数据，运用异质性双边随机前沿分析方法，测定了贸易自由化对环境污染的溢出效应、污染效应以及环境净效应。结果表明：贸易自由化对环境污染具有正向和负向双重影响，负向影响较强，且在观测的影响因素中占主导地位。稳健性检验支持了贸易自由化能够平衡城市间污染效应的结论，且发现其对环境污染整体上呈递减趋势。进一步的城市异质性分析表明：较高的城市等级、贸易条件与经济水平以及较小的城市规模能降低环境污染效应。因此，提升城市等级与贸易质量，促进贸易资源与治污经验的转移，是提升贸易环境效应的根本途径。

关键词: 贸易自由化, 溢出效应, 环境污染, 城市异质性, 双边随机前沿

Abstract: Trade liberalization helps to achieve regional comparative advantages and enhance economic welfare, but its effect on environmental protection is highly controversial. By combing the research on environmental pollution and environmental efficiency, we can find that the root of this controversy lies in the trade liberalization’s effect of environmental pollution in the structural aspect is controversial, and it is also difficult to measure the final environmental effects. Based on this, this paper takes a new perspective of nonpolluting as spillover, rejects the excessive decomposition of environmental pollution effects, and reevaluates the environmental effects of trade liberalization. Secondly, this paper accurately measures pollution to the prefecturelevel market and takes into account heterogeneity in order to explore environmental effects from smaller regional units. At the operational level, this paper selects the panel data of 283 prefecturelevel cities in China from 2003 to 2015, and uses the heterogeneous bilateral stochastic frontier analysis method to determine the spillover effect, pollution effect and environmental net effect of trade liberalization on environmental pollution. The results show that trade liberalization exacerbates current environmental pollution and dominates the observed influencing factors. The robustness test supports the conclusion that trade liberalization can balance the pollution effects between cities, and it is found that its environmental pollution is decreasing overall. Further analysis of urban heterogeneity shows that higher urban grade, terms of trade and economic conditions, and smaller urban scales can reduce environmental pollution effects. Therefore, improving the quality of trade and city grade, realizing the transfer of trade resources and pollution control experience is the fundamental way to enhance the environmental effects of trade.

Key words: Trade Liberalization, Spillover Effect, Environmental Pollution, Urban Heterogeneity, Bilateral Stochastic Frontier

胡兆廉石大千. “溢出效应”抑或“污染效应”？——贸易自由化对工业二氧化硫排放的新视角与再测算[J]. 统计研究, 2019, 36(12): 94-105.

Hu Zhaolian & Shi Daqian. “Spillover Effect” or “Pollution Effect”?—A New Perspective and Re-measurement of the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Industrial Sulfur Dioxide Emissions[J]. Statistical Research, 2019, 36(12): 94-105.

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“溢出效应”抑或“污染效应”？——贸易自由化对工业二氧化硫排放的新视角与再测算

“Spillover Effect” or “Pollution Effect”?—A New Perspective and Re-measurement of the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Industrial Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

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