统计研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (12): 15-26.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2019.12 002

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中国精准扶贫政策的减贫效应研究:来自准自然实验的经验证据

王立勇 许明   

  • 出版日期:2019-12-25 发布日期:2020-12-28

Research on the Effect of Poverty Reduction of Targeted Poverty Reduction Policy: Empirical Evidences from Quasi Natural Experiment

Wang Liyong & Xu Ming   

  • Online:2019-12-25 Published:2020-12-28

摘要: 本文采用中国家庭追踪调查2010-2016年个体水平数据为样本,从家庭人均纯收入、贫困发生率两个角度,借助DID方法研究我国精准扶贫政策的减贫效应,且为了提高研究结论稳健性,本文将基准DID模型扩展到连续型DID模型,并运用两阶段最小二乘法进行估计。在此基础上,本文进一步借助分位数DID方法揭示精准扶贫政策的异质性效应。研究结果表明:我国精准扶贫政策对农村贫困居民具有明显的减贫效果,精准扶贫政策明显提高了家庭人均纯收入,降低了贫困发生率,且随着时间推移,扶贫效果具有持续性;从贫困发生率角度来看,精准扶贫政策对不同贫困发生率地区均存在显著减贫效果,精准扶贫政策是有效的,相比而言,贫困发生率越严重的地区,精准扶贫政策的效应越大;从家庭人均纯收入来看,精准扶贫政策效应存在显著的异质性,减贫效应呈倒U型变化,即精准扶贫政策对贫困人口中的中间群体的收入提升效应最明显。

关键词: 精准扶贫, 减贫效应, 准自然实验, 异质性影响, 分位DID

Abstract: The article uses the individual level data of CUFE from 2010 to 2016 as sample, in the perspectives of per capita household net income and incidence of poverty, with the aid of DID method to study the effect of the China’s targeted poverty reduction policy. And in order to improve the robustness of the research conclusion, the paper extends the benchmark DID model to continuous DID model; what’s more, the paper uses twostage least squares to estimate the effect. On this basis, the paper further uses the quantile DID method to reveal the heterogeneous effects of targeted poverty reduction policy. The research results show that: China′s targeted poverty reduction policy has an obvious effect on the rural poor residents. It has increased per capita net household income significantly and reduced the incidence of poverty. Over time, the effects of poverty reduction are sustained. In the perspective of poverty incidence, targeted poverty reduction policy works in areas with different poverty incidences. And in areas with more severe poverty incidence, targeted poverty alleviation policy has greater effects. In the perspective of per capita net household income, the effect is significantly heterogeneous and shows an inverted Ushape, that is, the effect of targeted poverty reduction policy is the most obvious on the income of the middle group of the poor population. By contrast, it is not effective for the lowest income group, so the “precision” of the poverty reduction policy needs to be improved.

Key words: Targeted Poverty Reduction, Effect of Poverty Reduction, Quasi Natural Experiment, Heterogeneous Effects, Quantile DID Regression