关键词: “一带一路”, 经济周期协同性, 传导机制, 面板联立方程

Abstract: This paper applies the CM synchronization index to the dynamical measurement of the characteristics of business cycle synchronization between China and the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and then tests the transmission mechanism of business cycle synchronization by using simultaneous equation model. It is found that: 1) The economically cyclical synergy between China and the BRI countries has experienced three stages, namely, rising period, reversal period and continuous decline period, and the "decoupling" trend is becoming increasingly significant. 2) There is an obvious difference in synergies between China and other countries with various types of development. At the stages of rising and reversal periods, there is a closest synergies between China and the transition countries, less close with developed countries and lowest with other developing economies. But at the stages of reversal period, the synergies are in a descending order from developed, developing to transition economies.3) Bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment, specialization, and financial integration are the main transmission paths of economically cyclical cooperation between China and the BRI countries. Among them, bilateral trade and financial integration strengthen synergism, but as weakened by specialization and bilateral direct investment. In addition, institutional distance and monetary policy coordination are also important factors. 4) The relative importance of each channel to the synergy of economic cycle in an descending order is: bilateral direct investment, financial integration, specialization and bilateral trade, but in the post-crisis period, the international division led by global value chain makes specialization to be the most important factor. The above conclusions provide important theoretical basis and policy reference for the regional cooperation modes and path selections for BRI.

Key words: Belt and Road Initiative, Business Cycle Synchronization, Transmission Mechanism, Panel Simultaneous Equation