统计研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (8): 104-115.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.08.010

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SGL-SVM方法研究及其在财务困境预测中的应用

方匡南 杨 阳   

  • 出版日期:2018-08-25 发布日期:2018-08-16

SGL-SVM with its Application in Forecasting Corporate Financial Distress

Fang Kuangnan & Yang Yang   

  • Online:2018-08-25 Published:2018-08-16

摘要: 针对分类问题,本文提出了稀疏组Lasso支持向量机方法(Sparse group lasso SVM, SGL-SVM),即在SVM模型的损失函数中引入SGL惩罚函数,能同时进行组间变量和组内变量的筛选。由于SGL-SVM的目标函数求解比较复杂,本文又提出了一种快速的双层坐标下降算法。通过模拟实验,发现SGL-SVM方法在预测效果和变量选择上均要好于其他方法,对于变量具有自然分组结构且组内是稀疏的数据,本文方法在提高变量选择效果的同时又能提高模型的预测精度。最后,将本文提出的SGL-SVM方法应用到我国制造业上市公司财务困境预测中。

关键词: SVM, 双层变量选择, SGL, 财务困境预测

Abstract: For classification, we propose sparse group lasso SVM (SGL-SVM) approach to conduct bi-level variable selection by adding SGL penalty to SVM loss function. Due to the complexity of optimization of SGL-SVM objection function,we propose a bi-level coordinate descent algorithm. Simulation results suggest that SGL-SVM is better than other methods both on the performance of prediction and variable selection. For data with covariate group structure, bi-level selection not only can improve the performance of variable selection but also can improve the performance of prediction. Finally, we apply the proposed SGL-SVM to forecast manufacturing corporate financial distress in China.

Key words: SVM, Bi-level Variable Selection, Sparse Group Lasso, Forecasting Corporate Financial Distress