统计研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (6): 56-67.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.06.006

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中国制造业出口如何突破“天花板约束”

戴翔等   

  • 出版日期:2018-06-25 发布日期:2018-06-22

How the Chinese Manufacturing Exports Break through the "Ceiling Constraint"

Dai Xiang et al.   

  • Online:2018-06-25 Published:2018-06-22

摘要: 在全球价值链分工条件下,出口存在着名义增长和真实增长两种情形。面临国内外环境深刻变化,当前中国制造业名义出口面临“天花板约束”,而破除约束的路径之一就是依托制造业服务化提升制造业出口国内增加值,实现真实出口增长。本文利用WIOD数据库,在整体和细分层面上测算了包括中国在内的44个样本经济体2000-2014年制造业出口内含服务增加值。研究发现,无论是整体还是细分行业层面,以出口内含服务增加值为表征的制造业服务化有深入发展趋势,但中国在样本经济体中排名较为靠后。进一步的相关性分析表明,制造业出口国内增加值率与制造业出口内含国内服务增加值呈显著正相关,而与内含国外服务增加值呈显著负相关。因此,破除出口“天花板约束”,依托制造业服务化对于中国制造而言具有广阔空间和余地,也是可行的路径之一,但需要区分制造业出口内含的服务增加值来源结构。即通过大力发展国内服务业尤其是现代生产性服务业,以弱化制造业发展对国外服务业的依赖,对确保上述路径可行具有极为重要的战略意义。

关键词: 制造业服务化, 天花板约束, 出口国内增加值

Abstract: Under the condition of division of labor in the global value chain, there are nominal and real growths in exports. Confronting the profound changes in domestic and international conditions, currently the nominal exports of Chinese manufacturing faces a "ceiling constraint". One of the pathways to break the constraint is to enhance the domestic value-added in manufacturing exports by manufacturing services. Using the WIOD database, this paper measures 44 sample economies’ value-added (including China) in manufacturing exports from 2000 to 2014 at the levels of a whole sector and subdivisions. It is found that at the level of either a whole sector or subdivisions, there is an in-depth development trend in the manufacturing services, featured as domestic value-added services embedded in exports, but China ranks lower among the sample economies. A further correlation analysis shows that there is a significantly positive correlation between the domestic value-added rate in manufacturing exports and the domestic service value-added embedded in manufacturing exports, while a significantly negative correlation in terms of the foreign service value-added embedded in manufacturing exports. Therefore, to break the "ceiling constraint" by manufacturing services is one of the options to broaden space for China’s manufacturing, but need to distinguish the sources of service value-added imbedded in manufacturing exports. It is of strategic significance to ensure the feasibility of the above-mentioned pathway by developing the domestic services, especially modern productive services in order to weaken the dependence on the foreign services in manufacturing.

Key words: Manufacturing Service, Ceiling Constraint, Domestic Value-added in Exports